Chris,
>The attack described in section 3.4 of the document you reference is
>based on two assumptions
>1) The client does not verify certificate chains all the way to a
>trusted CA (in the example attack the malicious party presents a
>self-signed bogus certificate)
The "client" is unfortunately a *human* that just gets a hint that something
is not correct but he/she may click "Continue" to ignore. And maybe even select to
trust the next time. This is the problem with ad-hoc PKI as Dug correctly points
out. This is also probably the weakest spot in SAML, assuming that servers
are not too easy to hack into.
>2) The server does not require a verified client certificate.
This is by far the most likely use-case for SAML SSO-scenarious as far
as I know, assuming the server is the target server in SSO.
Personal opinion: Client-certs in inter-organization activities like extranet
authentication will due to SAML et. al. never be of any significance!
rgds
Anders